(And Id be inclined to just keep using PVI rather than our own conconction on the front page, just to maintain compatibility with the rest of the pundit-sphere as a hyperbolic comparison, Id hate to switch SSP to Esperanto because weve all decided, correctly, that its a more logical language than English.). (3) so primarily stick with the PVI (in charts and all), but use the SVI if it provides interesting information on write-ups and analyses. Of course, my preference is an Excel sheet listing vote totals by office (prez, gov and CD) side-by-side over the last several cycles broken down by county. Lets hear your thoughts! I think the SVI is better. According to Cook, the PVI "is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years. The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. The following errors occurred with your submission. A D+0 seat is not a 50/50 district but is top heavy for Democrats (6-1 if my data is correct). 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. St. Johns Legal Studies Research Paper No. (2) The rest of the political world will be using PVIs, which could make it harder for SSP analysis to translate to outside readers Districts that are in line with the national average receive a score of EVEN. These average districts include Floridas 7th district, Californias 10th district, and Oregons 4th district. SVI would also be a good microtargeting tool, but something tells me that it would just be an under/overperformance scale and wouldnt be as cross-comparable. Hardly a day hardly a post goes by here at the Swing State Project without a reference to the Cook Political Reports Partisan Vote Index, or PVI for short. 7, 2022, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, Slate, Feb. 25, 2022, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, Slate, Jan. 4, 2022, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America, N.Y. Times, Jan. 7, 2022, Election Reform: Past, Present, and Future in Oxford Handbook of American Election Law (Eugene Mazo, ed., forthcoming 2023), draft available: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, 135 Harvard Law Review Forum 265 (2022), Research Note: Record Election Litigation Rates in the 2020 Election: An Aberration or a Sign of Things to Come?, Election Law Journal, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050 (2022), Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, 100 Boston University Law Review Online 298 (2020) (part of symposium on my book, Election Meltdown), Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them,Election Law Journal (2020), The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix Itby Heather K. Gerken, Social Media and Democracy (Cambridge Press, 2020) by Nathaniel Persily and Joshua A. Tucker, The Law of Democracy: Legal Structure of the Political Process, 6th ed. I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis. The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. The composition of those new districts will likely change the PVI rating and could impact how those states are represented in Congress moving forward. PVI tells us which districts flow with the tides and which are stubbornly resistant. So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. A district . The boldface sentences confirm my understanding of how PVI works. But my training as an engineer says that we need to look at 2008 PVI side-by-side with 2008 SVI, understand which districts have more than a 5-point (arbitrary number) difference, and make a gut call on which data fits reality better. 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. Following each election and round of redistricting, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional district. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. Heres a case in point. Most people use these numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not how it compares nationally. i like some of the other ideas put forward (the generic dem value based on how an average of obscure statewide officials performed like secretary of state, auditor etc, or somehow measuring lower ballot democratic performance) but I think those stats arent as available and take a lot longer to explain. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. So a district with a PVI of D+2 went for Obama by 2% (51%-49%). But we need something more shorthand, dont we? Basing the PVI on the Presidential vote is quick and dirty, and standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever. So, for me at least, the discussion of whether a district should be an R+13 or an R+15, depending on what baseline we use, is more of a distraction than anything. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. The same thing with Cooks PVI. [4]. ", 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, The Republican Electoral College Advantage, Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI). While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. But it does take up too much space, huh? The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. In 2018 Kendra Horn became the first Democrat to win an election in the states 5th district, which scores R+10, in 40 years. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. & Mary L. Rev. Why do states in the North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education? Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. However, if you are going to take the lead, it makes sense to try to do this carefully. Segregation in the US and the dissimilarity index. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. Id be curious to know what sort of justifications or rationales anyone can come up with for the status quo. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. Additionally, in Washingtons 13th Legislative District, Republican candidates won an average 64.73% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (64.73%) against the average statewide share of the same (45.43%), the district voted approximately 19 percentage points more Republican, or R+19.Following the presidential and gubernatorial elections, presidential and gubernatorial results are compiled to generate Hybrid Partisan Voting Index scores for statewide offices, congressional districts, and political districts or subdivisions including state legislative districts, counties, cities, and precincts. Professor of Law at USC Gould School of LawView posts , Cheap Speech: How Disinformation Poisons Our Politics--and How to Cure It (Yale University Press, 2022) The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. If certain, wed put them in the solid D or solid R bin, and if uncertain, wed still get an idea of how big the swing block is, and whether they lean D or R. Now, even if we do an abstract version of this, via polling, we (or anyone else) would still need to put in a ton of groundwork into gathering this data. Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole., Professor of Law and Political Science But why should it be calculated this way? But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. I just dont know about the rest of us. Cooks PVI is merely a relative value even using the old data. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. KISS. But at the Presidential level, the candidates personalities and characteristics like race in 08 can swing a lot of votes. The PVI assigns a numeric score to each U.S. congressional district based on how it performed in the previous election compared to the country as a whole. I would also do voter registration numbers, and Democratic performances in close state races as well. to the discussion. Political statistical exponent. These states include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. This chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle. For this thread, I will be using the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures by district, how far each district votes for a Democrat or how far each district votes for a Republican, then does it on a state by state level, then on a country level. The PVI was developed by Charles Cook, editor and publisher of Cook, and scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. But on the other hand, Im getting kind of tired of PVI, as its just one dimension out of many in describing a district, and one we shouldnt fetishize more than we should. "Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook . The new Cook numbers would mean that the divide between likely Republican and likely Democratic at the House level would come at somewhere around R+5 or R+6. by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. i think whatever the methodology, it should include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. For instance, Im sure we can think of other districts that fit easily into each of the six categories I have above. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican P. I guess I dont see the value of seeing how much more republican or more demcoratic a district is than a national average. Powers, privileges, procedure, committees, history, media, "The differences between real grassroots and "Astroturf" matter", "There are 119Republican House members who should be VERY nervous today", "The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", "Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", Emergency Planning, Preparedness, and Operations, Scene at the Signing of the Constitution of the United States, First Reading of the Emancipation Proclamation of President Lincoln, George Washington and the Revolutionary War Door, Westward the Course of Empire Takes Its Way, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index&oldid=1133943458, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Articles containing potentially dated statements from 2022, All articles containing potentially dated statements, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. Anyway, I like the idea of using both. 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