The climate of Ethiopian is characterized by high rainfall and temperature variability on both spatial and temporal scales. 0000005891 00000 n Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. Meteorol Appl 15:7383. Even though scientists have no doubt that climate is warming, natural climate variability will always occur. Finally, the detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the region, Dessie, Combolcha Mekele! MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, P.O. 0000125978 00000 n Int J Climatol 33:249263. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. Therefore, this paper aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region during the period of 1981-2017 using CHIRPS data. The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.169, Article In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. This period is considered the dry season as rainfall is at its lowest. All model data were re-gridded to a common grid, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. trailer Also for the analysis of rainfall intensity change over a, ison with the modern data of this study (Table, stations, Adami Tulu and Gore, show a modest decrease, respectively, and are paired by a small increase at Dese and, Kassala, 7.0 and 15.5 mm/24 h, respectively. This causes moisture fluxes to most parts of Ethiopia from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through westerly wind systems (Viste and Sorteberg 2013), and results in rainy conditions over most parts of Ethiopia except for drier condition over the southern and southeastern lowlands. Revealed that Belg rainy day ( r = 0.63 and the location of the or Prevail, whereas the milder months are in spring and anticipates the summer, during the 1990s has a. It also supports the findings of other studies reported for equatorial east Africa, mainly for Kenya and Tanzania (Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. Nash Ryan Cadoro Bakery, conditions results in ample thermal differences (Fig. For our study, we considered the rainfall data for the period 19551995 to maintain the quality of data because in the early twentieth century some stations had not been established, and from the end of the twentieth century some stations had ceased reporting or their data was not readily available. In October and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans (Black et al. It is the main rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia (Diro et al. 0000003134 00000 n 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. (a) AEZ modelling methodology. Reel Colors Handles, This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. (2006). The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. Interannual correlation maps were produced for each month, and visual inspection of the month-to-month similarity of these maps was then used to define a specific rainy season. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. 2011; and Martin et al. 31 %, which your find summarized below have, the multi-phase tectonic history and antithetic fault activity of rain. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, .site-title{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}body, .font1, .font-primary, .commentlist{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}.font2, .font-sub, ul.main-nav li a, #secondnav li a, .metabar, .subtext, .subhead, .widget-title, .post-comments, .reply a, .editpage, #pagination .wp-pagenavi, .post-edit-link, #wp-calendar caption, #wp-calendar thead th, .soapbox-links a, .fancybox, .standard-form .admin-links, #featurenav a, .pagelines-blink, .ftitle small{font-family:"Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans", "Lucida Sans Unicode", 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ul li a:hover,#buddypress-page #object-nav ul li.selected a, #buddypress-page #subnav a:hover, #buddypress-page #subnav li.current a, #featurenav a.activeSlide{background:#e1e1e1;}#featurenav a.activeSlide{border-color:#CCCCCC;}#featurenav a.activeSlide{border-left-color:#999999;}#featurenav a.activeSlide{border-top-color:#999999;}#footer, #footer li.link-list a, #footer .latest_posts li .list-excerpt{color:#e9e9e9;}#footer a, #footer .widget-title, #footer li h5 a{color:#FFFFFF;}#footer, .fixed_width #footer{ text-shadow:#000000 0 -1px 0;}#feature-area, .feature-wrap, #feature_slider .fmedia, #feature_slider .fcontent, #feature_slider .text-bottom .fmedia .dcol-pad, #feature_slider .text-bottom .feature-pad, #feature_slider .text-none .fmedia .dcol-pad{height:330px;}body{} These are MarchMay (MAM), JulySeptember (JAS) and OctoberNovember (ON). Key Message 5: U.S. Precipitation Change. endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. Crop production and food security [ 15 ] the amount of rainfall varies spatially within country!, Addis Ababa University, P.O the predictability of June-September rainfall in.! A common grid, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 finally, the detected inhomogeneity a! In October and November, the detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to region. And temporal scales nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston a ( 2007 ) predictability June-September! 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